Archive for the 'Former Soviet Union' Category
Despite Georgia’s decision to hand over four Russian’s suspected of espionage, Russia isn’t in any mood to let up the pressure on its southern neighbour.
Russia’s migration service said on Thursday that the suspension of visas to Georgians would be extended, and that 180-day visas held by Georgians already in Russia would be cut to 90 days.
Russian parliamentarians are also expected to examine a bill this week that would prevent Georgians living in Russia from making bank transfers to relatives back home.
Estimates vary but it is believed that at least one million Georgians currently live in Russia. Many Georgian families depend on the remittances they send home.
I’m sure enterprising ‘businessmen’ will adapt very quickly to these new money transfer rules, by simply sending the money via a third country, but nonetheless, this represents a significant escalation of tensions.
Georgia, in my opinion, handled the whole spying affair badly, but it’s time for Russia to take a step back, and consider the long term impact of its actions as well. The Russian government must learn to be as gracious in victory as it is ungracious in defeat.
Earlier this week, Georgia looked rather foolish, having done little more than embarras itself. Today, it looks like a victim of Russian bullying again.
Georgia has arrested four Russian officers, accusing them of spying and planning a “major provocation”.
Mr Merabishvili [Georgia’s Interior Minister] said the detained Russians and Georgian citizens had been collecting information on Tbilisi’s relations with Nato, as well on its sea port and railway infrastructure, opposition parties and army.
“Today we neutralised a very serious and dangerous group,” he said.
Russia’s chief of army staff Yuri Baluyevsky, quoted by Russian news agencies, said the move was “sheer lawlessness”.
I must confess, the situation in Georgia is beginning to worry me. Both sides seem to be ratcheting up the tension, with no real thought of the long term consequences.
I think events to date have been little more than posturing - and I certainly can’t believe that either side wants to push the other too far. But, all the same, I’m beginning to get the feeling that, sooner or later, someone’s going to miscalculate, and spark of a conflict that neither side really wants.
Update 28/9: Georgia have upped the stakes by surrounding the Russian Army HQ in Tbilisi, preventing anyone from entering or leaving the building. They’re demanding the surrender of a Russian intelligence officer - Lieutenant Colonel Konstantin Pugachin.
It’s been a busy weekend for election watchers around Europe.
Sweden voted in a new centre-right alliance, their (very) narrow victory breaking 12 years of Social Democrat control. A Fistful of Euros has covered the election with not one, not two, but three posts - here, here and here.
The German regional elections brought an unexpected success for the far-right, where the National Democratic Party (NPD) won 7.3% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. That takes them comfortably over the 5% needed to get a seat in the regional parliament. Germany isn’t all far-right extremists, though, and the SDP managed a comfortable win in the Berlin elections. The local SDP are led by Klaus Wowereit, who just happens to be gay, which has prompted A Fistful of Euros (who else?) to ask is Germany is ready for its first gay Chancellor?
And, finally, the big news from Moldova is that the citizens of breakaway republic Trans-Dneister have turned out in overwhelming numbers in a referendum on the future of their statelet. More than 97% of those who voted hated Moldova so much that they so much that they would like to form a political union with Russia. The Moldovan Foreign Minister clearly thinks the vote was rigged, and has refused to accept the result of the referendum. Sensible man - it’s safe to say that any result of more than 90% in an election can automatically be discounted by people who know how to count. Russia has remained rather tight-lipped. Not all that surprisingly - the prospect of political union with a dirt-poor criminal statelet isn’t exactly something to be shouting about.
I’ve been remiss this week in not publicising the great work that Robert Mayer has been doing over at Publius Pundit recently.
He’s just been on a trip around Eastern Europe, investigating the failed attempts to remove Alexander Lukashenko from office in Belarus, and the more successful Orange Revolution in Ukraine. Here, in One Student’s Struggle in Belarus, he interviews a Belarussian democracy activist, who is managing to continue the struggle in Ukraine.
And yesterday, he published his picture (and words!) report on former Iranian President Khatami’s visit to Harvard University.
The terrorist threat to air travel should be taken seriously - but probably not this seriously:
Ben Paarman turned up at Luton airport for a flight to Berlin. Having forgotten to remove toiletries from his hand luggage, he was hauled over for further inspection, and two books were discovered. A German novel passed without comment, but Murder in Samarkand, Craig Murray’s memoir of his incident-strewn stint as British ambassador to Uzbekistan, didn’t. “‘Is that about terrorism?’ asked the lady that examined my onboard luggage,” wrote Paarman on neweurasia.net, a collection of blogs by and about Central Asians. “‘Humm, well, it contains mentions of that, but it’s about your former ambassador to Uzbekistan and more about diplomacy,’ I replied politely. ‘Does it have al-Qaeda in it?’ I looked a bit confused. ‘Well, I have to check this with my manager, the rest of your stuff is fine, though.’” The manager arrived, asked Paarman where he got the book (Waterstone’s, Islington), then pronounced: “I am afraid you cannot take this onboard, Sir.” The book was duly confiscated.
Apparently the book, which the Foreign Office tried to prevent Craig Murray from publishing, has been confiscated a couple of times at British Airports recently. Murray, with his unerring eye for self publicity, is claiming that it is now British policy to seize every copy of the book it can copies of the book at airports, and is planning to seek a High Court injunction on the grounds that his (or perhaps the reader’s?) human rights have been curtailed.
Oddly, the Guardian article mentions that Paarman wrote about the incident on his blog- neweurasia. I’ve just had a quick look, and couldn’t find anything, but Ben’s a reputable guy, so I’m sure the article’s around there somewhere. (Update 9/11/06: I’ve just found Ben’s blog post, over on neweurasia’s Uzbekistan blog. Now why on earth didn’t I think of looking there in the first place?).
Whatever, seizing books from passengers is an alarming precedent, which does absolutely nothing to make the skies a safer place. The practice deserves to be exposed and ended as soon as possible.
Update (11/9/06): Post amended at Craig’s request to correct my error - see comments.
Uldis Ozoliņš explains the state of party politics in Latvia today before embarking on an explanation of Latvia’s voting system for the uninitiated.
Most voting systems in the world do not allow crossing out of a candidate’s name.
Suffice to say, it’s complicated, especially for those of us who are used to first past the post systems.
While a bunch of Tony Blair supporters have been hyperventilating about a ‘coup’ against Britain’s Prime Minister, the government of a far less stable country is claiming that it has foiled a proper coup attempt.
Georgian police arrested 30 members of a Russian backed political party yesterday, claiming that they were plotting a coup.
Registan.net has news and analysis of the arrests. To be honest, like Nathan and Joshua, I tend to the view that it’s more of a ‘housecleaning’ exercise by a Georgian government feeling the strain.
If so then, on the face of it, it’s not a particularly positive development for democratic politics in Georgia.
Registan.net is doing a great job of covering Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s visit to Central Asia. Particularly interesting is this post about how Japan is trying to set itself up as an intermediary between Uzbekistan and the United States.
Koizumi’s taking on a tough job - it’ll be interesting to see how he gets on, although I certainly think it’s useful for the US and Uzbekistan to have some back channel communications. And Japan gets a boost out of it too, raising its international profile that little bit more in its quest for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.
A year or two ago, back in my siberianlight days, Robert Mayer of Publius Pundit and I briefly discussed the idea of going to Belarus, to provide independent blog coverage of the Presidential election from on the ground.
I never got around to it, because I was too poor (and, let’s face it, too lazy). But Robert is made of sterner stuff than I and, this summer, has spent several weeks travelling around Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, taking a long hard look at how democracy is faring.
Today, Robert has posted the first of a series of articles based on his travels - Walking Among the Tent Camps - which explores the mixture of disillusion and hope that is felt today by many of those who worked so hard to bring about Ukraine’s Orange Revolution.
Sergei is his name, a 23 year old student of political science who has been an activist for a few years now. He is one of the main coordinators of the camp, making sure that the little village of 52 volunteers, most between the ages of 20 and 30, runs smoothly. And it does. PORA’s base is well-regimented. Political leaflets are handed out as leaders try to persuade passersby to support their cause, the camp is kept clean, intruders are kept out, and volunteers are sent on missions to bring food and drinks for those staying in the tents.
He explained to me that he and the rest had been out on Maidan for nearly a month and would be out there until August 24th, Ukraine’s independence day, because they don’t like the coalition that was formed in parliament and believe that their country needs change. They know longer want to be part of Russia’s sphere of influence and because of it consider themselves true patriots of their country.
Robert has plans to visit more newly emerging democracies and totalitarian countries around the globe - but blog journalism like this doesn’t come cheap. He’s looking for donations and, if you value quality independent journalism, I’d urge you to contribute a few dollars if you can.
Over at Publius Pundit Jonathan Taylor is talking sense about Ukrainian democracy as defeated Presidential candidate Viktor Yanukovich takes over the Premiership:
But let us not forget that those revolutionaries did not protest only for Yushchenko; they were fighting for democracy. Yanukovich’s premiership is an accurate reflection of the political situation in Ukraine and thus another victory for democracy.
I’ve said it about democracy in Ukraine many times - it’s not about the people who get elected, it’s about the process by which they are elected. If the people of Ukraine believe that the best way to choose their government is through a free and fair election, and they have the power to hold free and fair elections, then Ukraine is a democracy.
I have very little time for those who get upset when the ‘wrong’ government gets elected in one of the world’s many democratising countries. Ukraine isn’t the only recent example - Lebanon and Palestine are other rather topical examples.
Because, lets face it, a country where the “right” party is always elected, is a dictatorship, not a democracy.
Livejournal blogger Litota reports that the opposition in Belarus has adopted the flash mob model to further their protests.
In this photo, people stand in October Square watching the large screen tv through blindfolds, to protest at the one-sided picture that Belarussian state tv broadcasts.
Liotota has more pictures of the flash mob here.
Hat tip to Neeka at Global Voices)
Now that the protests have died down in Belarus, a quick update of a few interesting stories I’ve seen today:
- The LA Times estimates that over 1,000 opposition activists and protestors have been arrested since the election. Most of them seem to have been sentenced to 15 days, which I suppose is something to be relatively thankful for.
- Publius reports that 20 of those arrested have gone on hunger strike to draw attention to the crowded conditions in their overcrowded jails.
- Following reports that his election inauguration had been postponed, the press noticed this week that Alexander Lukashenko hadn’t actually been seen in public since the election. Stress, and a mysterious illness were suggested, but according to Kommersant, he popped up at a televised meeting, telling people to take pictures of their glorious leader down off their walls.
- br23 blog reports that the KGB called one opposition leader, pretending to be from the US embassy. They told him that the US ambassador wanted to see him and sent a car to collect him. Once he got in the car, he was taken away and beaten.
- Defeated Presidential candidate, Alexander Milinkevich plans to go to Warsaw to speak to the Polish parliament. I doubt Lukashenko will mind Milinkevich leaving the country, but will he be let back in?
- Alexander Kozulin, the other defeated opposition Presidential candidate has been charged with organizing group action and using explosives, leading to the breach of peace, says Interfax. He was arrested last week, and now faces up to six years in jail.
Not a lot of cheery news, unfortunately.
About the best we can hope for is that the opposition have learnt a lot of lessons that they can use in the future, that awareness of the situation in Belarus has spread massively, and that people in Belarus are aware that a sizeable opposition movement exists.
Now here’s a blogger with an interesting take on genocide.
Father Vazken is an Armenian Priest, working in Rwanda. Here he writes of being introduced to some survivors of the 1994 genocide:
He introduced me as a grandchild of Armenian Genocide survivors. The ladies listened attentively. I tried to speak but got choked up. Was this not the scene of our parents? It was like looking through time in the aftermath of our Genocide, where women, children came together… where good intentioned souls got together to help. Did our mothers have the same support that these women have? How could they go on with their lives?
Armenia, of course, suffered an horrific genocide at the hands of the Ottoman Turks in 1915.
(Thanks to Onnik for the tip).
A Russian man gets mad at a Ukrainian, and this is what happens:
“The molester threw a typewriter out of his window on the fifth floor, aiming at a passing Ukrainian citizen,” a source in the law enforcement agencies said.
The typewriter landed on the Ukrainian’s head and he had to be taken to hospital with skull injuries. A few hours later the police detained the assaulter, a Moscow resident who admitted his guilt.
The pen might not be mightier than the sword, but the typewriter, now that’s a real weapon.
(This post brought to you courtesy of the Mosnews appreciation society).
In a move sure to delight pro-democracy activists the world over, Viktor Yanukovich has vowed to take to the streets of Kiev if the upcoming Ukrainian Parliamentary elections are marred by voter fraud.
Yanukovich, if you recall, was the pro-Russian candidate who tried to steal the Presidential election in 2004. He was only prevented from doing so after a mass of people powered Ukraine to its now famous Orange Revolution.
And, it looks like he’s learned his lesson good.
As protests in Belarus continue peacefully into their third day, here’s a question I’d like to throw into the mix:
- Is Lukashenko gambling that the protests will eventually fizzle out of their own accord, and that, for allowing them to continue uninterrupted, he will enhance his democratic credentials?
I can’t see that the majority in the US and the EU are going to be swayed, but it could be a useful propaganda tool among both his own people, and the people of Russia.
Just a quick note, because others are live blogging events better than I ever could:
About a ten thousand people made it to October Square last night, for another evening of peaceful protests. A mini-tent city has been set up, and about 1,000 people are reported to have stayed in the square overnight.
One of the night’s most revealing incidents was the arrest, and rapid release of Milinkevich’s two sons. Robert Meyer at Publius Pundit reports:
They were detained and charged with petty hooliganism at the polie department, but as soon as the police colonel found out who they are, he tore up the report and escorted them back to the square.
I think (hope) this demonstrates that the police are, if not yet sympathetic with the protestors yet, at least afraid of provoking them for fear of a negative public reaction (both domestic and international).
Alternatively, it could mean that Lukashenko has ordered police not to cause any trouble over minor incidents until he is ready. Rush Mush translates a less optimistic report from Hitroe Radio:
The police officers will support Lukashenka all the way to the end. The possibility that ordinary officers will switch sides is out of the question. We were talking to them for 2 hours without raising our voices, and there is no chance that they will switch sides. If they had an order, they would kill. On the 19th they were put on high alert five times, they were angry and ready to attack, but the alerts were cancelled.
Overall, though, one of the most revealing comments I’ve read (sorry, can’t remember where - Update: It was br23 blog.) was that although there were less protestors overall in the square last night, those that have stayed overnight seem far more determined to stay the distance.
The longer they can hang on, the larger the level of public support they will draw over the coming days.
Another article on Belarus in the Guardian’s Comment is Free website - but oddly this one hasn’t got open comments.
The article, by Neil Almond is unsurprised by Lukashenko’s overwhelming election victory - according to Neil, its all because Lukashenko has built up the economy. Not a mention of electoral fraud.
By protecting Belarus from the ravages of free-market fundamentalists and delivering economic growth and prosperity for the mass of Belarussians, Lukashenko has sown the seeds of a pluralistic society far better than by handing the state’s assets over to half a dozen cronies of western advisers.
Belarus is far from perfect, but it is a country where masses of ordinary people are getting on with life and getting a bit better off. That is why Lukashenko inspires fear and loathing in the thinktanks and foreign ministries of the west. By saving Belarus from mass unemployment he set a terrible example. What if the neighbours tried to copy it?
I’m not upset at the Guardian for printing this view. What I am upset about is that they haven’t opened it up for comment. Unless we have the opportunity to point out the stupidity of unbalanced arguments such as this, what is the point of Comment is Free?
Lets hope I’m jumping the gun, it’s just an administrative hitch, and comments will be opened later this morning.
Timothy Garton Ash has a post about Belarus up at the Guardian’s new blog thingy, Comment is Free.
Most interesting about his post, though, is the way he is using it to gather ideas for a future column:
How do you think those who live in democracies - especially the democracies of Europe - should react? I’ll be writing about this in my Guardian column on Thursday. I’d appreciate your comments. Watch that post-Soviet space. Speak in this space.
My first reaction, I must admit, was to think… ‘why should I do your homework for you?’
But, on reflection, I find this a fascinating experiment. In my day job, I work in policy, and one of our mantras is ’shape the debate’. By being the first organisation to speak on a subject, we can (if we do it right) set the parameters of any subsequent debate, ensuring that some topics are the centre of any discussion, and that others are more or less excluded.
In effect, instead of offering commentators the opportunity to respond to what he has already written, Garton Ash is offering commenters the chance to shape the debate on Belarus.
I have to applaud his experiment, and I really do look forward to seeing what he writes on Thursday, and comparing it to the comments he received. And - full disclosure - yes, I am one of those commenters who tried today to shape the debate. (Hint… I’m the one with the most well reasoned, wise and witty arguments).
I hope more commenters follow his example.
