Taking Aim

It looks like people are gathering again on October Square, in Minsk, to protest the results of the Belarus election.

Neeka’s Backlog is providing some of the best English language coverage again today, and she tells of a couple of (contradictory) reports on the number of protestors gathering:

Channel 5 News (a Ukrainian channel?) reports that more people have gathered on the square than last night (if so, we’re talking tens of thousands).

But, Wolny, a Belarusian blogging live from the square reports that 6-7,000 people have arrived, and that he doesn’t really expect any more.

If the second, lower figure is the more accurate one (and I suspect it is), I’d imagine that, again we’ll spend the night wondering if the protests can continue into tomorrow and beyond.

The numbers are a little disappointing, and I worry that they haven’t really hit the critical mass necessary to really spark of a continuing protest, and that, from here, they will decline over the next few nights.

Still, one can never tell with these kinds of things. Anything could still happen over the next few days.

The OSCE, by the way, produced the report everyone expected, condemning the way the election was run:

“The Belarussian election was severely flawed due to arbitrary use of state power and restrictions to basic rights,” the OSCE said in a statement.

The US and EU have also voiced their displeasure, with the US coming right out and calling for a re-run of the election, and the EU going one step further by mooting the idea of sanctions.

Update: Publius Pundit is also updating regularly, with some more encouraging news than Neeka (!). He’s also pointed me in the direction of Rush-Mush, a new Russian blog which is currently translating the live reports of Belarussian bloggers into English.

The Filter is also covering events live, as they unfold. One of his sources confirms that protestors have gone home for the night (and as its 7pm GMT as I write this – or 10pm Minsk time) this strikes me as a little early for committed democracy activists to be going home to bed.

Update 2: After midnight, Minsk time, and what a night it seems to have been.  The protests seem to have turned into something serious (but still peaceful), with even a few tents showing up.  Police attempted to take away the electric generator, but were talked down by Milinkevich, rumours abounded that there was going to be an attack by police (which doesn’t seem to have materialised).  Worryingly though, Alexander Milinkevich’s two sons seem to be missing.

Check out Publius Pundit for the latest updates.  He has the advantage of being in the US, so can stay up later than us Euros…

Andrew Khrapavitski reports that 50,000 people have arrived so far in Minsk’s October Square(his report is from around 11pm Minsk time), and that Alexander Kazulin, one of the defeated candidates that some thought was a Lukashenko stooge, has joined them.

Milinkevich, the main opposition candidate, if he hasn’t already arrived in October Square, can’t be too far behind.

50,000 protestors (if it is an accurate estimate) sounds a sizeable enough number that police can’t really wade into the crowd to disperse them violently. They are also reaching the kinds of numbers that are going to get Western news agencies really interested.

Could it be that the number of protestors is reaching the critical mass that will allow them to build a serious challenge to Lukashenko’s regime? I hope so.

Check out Neeka’s Backlog and Andrei Khrapavitski and Publius Pundit (who has found Belarus’ first protest babe – a sure sign that Lukashenko is doomed) for more updates as the protest develops.

Picture from Belarus’ Komsomolskaya Pravda

As the Presidential election in Belarus election gets underway, a number of bloggers plan to liveblog the day:

• Andrei Khrapavistski
• br23 blog (in English)
• br23 blog (in Belarussian)
• Wolny (in Belarussian)

Thanks to Neeka for details – it looks like she is posting pretty regular updates, too.

Just in case you were wondering how the election is going… according the the BBC News report I just watched, Lukashenko is reporting 80% support at the exit polls.

Neil Clark introduces the speech of a great leader…

Here’s a superb speech by the President of the last independent country in Europe. The only one whose foreign policy is not decided in another country’s capital.

Who is this amazingly skilled leader, you ask?  None other than Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus.

Who clearly only receives ridiculously large subsidies from Russia on the price of gas and oil because President Putin is in awe of Lukashenko’s magnificence.

Much as you might expect, the number of arrests of opposition supporters and activists in Belarus has been increasing dramatically as election day draws ever closer.  By the count of br23 blog, 35-40 activists have been arrested in the past couple of days:

Virtually all of the arrested people were top members of Milinkevich’s team. If you imagine our united opposition as an army, it essentially means all of its generals and best officers are now taken prisoners. Milinkevich’s headquarters have been destroyed.

The Belarus government is also getting its retaliation in first when it comes to discrediting any post-election demonstrations.  RFE/RL reports:

Belarusian guards at the Lithuanian border said they have seized tents, sleeping bags, and warm clothes sent from the United States. The authorities say the items could be used to help protestors at postelection rallies.

Would-be election monitors from the EU have also been denied visas for entry into Belarus (and, just for good measure, banned from entering the country for the next two years).

Meanwhile, for some excellent analysis of the situation in Belarus, check out Sean Guillory’s guest post over at Publius Pundit – Zubr and the Denim Revolution.

Yes, political arrests are so common in Belarus in the run up to the Presidential election, that it is becoming necessary to put together a daily summary of just who has been arrested in the last 24 hours. 

Belarusan American Blog and br23 blog both report the arrest of a Ukrainian journalist, while she was covering an election rally in Minsk.

Unfortunately for the authorities, she was broadcasting live in Ukraine at the time of the arrest, and the whole incident can be heard on this mp3 recording including, apparently, 40 seconds of screams as she is dragged away.

(I’m on a soundcardless PC at the moment, so haven’t heard the recording yet).

To judge the scale of harrasment of foreign – particularly Ukrainian journalists – you might want to take a look at this RFE/RL report from last week, which says the Ukrainian government has demanded to know why 6 journalists were thrown out of Belarus.

Arrests of politicians in Belarus are becoming a daily occurrence, it seems, as br23 blog reports:

Another one was arrested today… Believe it or not, the man is not even taking part in this campaign. He’s too old, and he has cardiac problems. He’s on heart medication.

Siarhiej Antonchyk was walking with his son when they was bundled into a car by plainclothes police officers, then each jailed for 15 days for resisting arrest.  (Which, purely co-incidentally of course, means that they’ll be locked up until just after the election).

This charge is clearly absurd – in Minsk, if a bunch of men in civilian clothes attack you and try to bundle you into a car, the natural assumption is always going to be that this is a kidnap attempt, rather than necessarily an arrest.  Most anyone with any brains – or, at least, a healthy self-preservation instinct – would resist being bundled into a car in this way.

If the police in Belarus don’t want people to resist arrest, perhaps they should wear their uniforms more often.

One final note – according to this story, a total of six opposition activists / politicians were arrested on Friday.

br23 blog reports on the alarming steps the Belarus government are taking to prevent Orange Revolution-style protests after the March 19th election.  Essentially, they plan to lock down the capital city:

So the information from an anonymous KGB agent was correct. Here’s Lukashenka’s perfect defense plan: they quietly canceled all incoming trains and buses to Minsk from all the cities, towns or villages on March, 19 and March, 20.

There are already dozens of people from the regions who reported that they couldn’t book a ticket from their home town to Minsk on March 19, because it was supposedly “all sold out” or “all booked.”

Not sure where this information came from, or how accurate it is, but it will certainly dampen any potential protests.

I don’t think it will silence protests altogether, though – there are still a lot of people inside Minsk, and if they can kick things off, and keep protesting for long enough, others will find a way to join them.