Taking Aim

It’s been a tough day for Tony Blair, as the pressure on him to quit mounts:

• Two letters have been written by the 2001 and 2005 intake of MPs respectively, calling on him to quit – one of which has been sent.
• The authors of the letters above include junior ministers (which does rather beg the question of why they didn’t resign at the same time if they have no confidence in their boss).
• His own ministers have been going around telling the world he’ll be gone by the Autumn 2007 Party conference
• The Sun newspaper has this morning published its exclusive on Blair’s plans to quit – apprently he’ll step down as party leader on May 31st 2007, and as Prime Minister July 26 2007.  These dates fall just after his 10th anniversary in Number 10, which re-inforces the speculation that his resignation date is about personal vanity, rather than the good of the country.

Frankly, I can’t see him surviving beyond this year’s Party conference, let alone staying on until the middle of next year. 

His only hope of keeping back the mob that is baying for his blood is to directly announce – at the party conference at the very latest – his intention to quit, and a firm timetable for this. 

If Blair can’t bring himself to stop dodging the issue, he will almost certainly face a leadership challenge at the conference from a party that knows it will otherwise be seen by the public as a bunch of snivelling cowards.  The challenge probably won’t be from Gordon Brown in person - he has all the political courage of a squashed tomato – but by a stalking horse.

The Home Office tells a High Court judge that justice cannot be allowed to stand in the way of balancing the books:

In a letter to the duty high court judge sent on August 31, the Home Office says: “Because of the complexities, practicalities and costs involved in arranging such charters, it is essential that these removals are not disrupted or delayed by large numbers of last-minute claims for permission to seek judicial review.

“To ensure the viability of this operation and in line with enforcement operational instructions, the Home Office may decide not to defer removal in the face of a last-minute threat or application to seek judicial review.”

Have they considered setting a date by which all ‘last minute’ appeals for judicial review must be received.  Once that has passed, the Home Office could then safely book all the charter flights it wants without worrying about the potential costs of cancellation.

A leaked memo from some of Tony Blair’s closest advisers was revealed today, outlining a strategy for a glorious departure after ten years in office:

The memo describes how Mr Blair should depart from Number 10 in a whirlwind of TV and radio appearances, city visits and photo opportunities including plans to appear on Blue Peter, Songs Of Praise and Chris Evans’ radio show, according to the Daily Mirror.

The five-page memo says Mr Blair needs to “go with the crowds wanting more”

This is a truly frightening revelation, which shows that Tony Blair’s closest advisors are completely out of touch with the national mood.  They simply do not understand how damaged Blair’s image is today.

I personally think he was a good Prime Minister – for his time.  But that time ended a few years ago, and instead of bowing out with the “crowds wanting more”, he will leave unmourned and unloved by a public impatient to move on. 

I pray that this memo is a hoax by Blair’s political enemies, but somehow I don’t think this particular prayer will be answered.

Geoffrey Wheatcroft filled up a half-page in the Guardian this morning, bemoaning the fact that it’s incredibly difficult these days to get rid of a Prime Minister that nobody wants. 

Sadly, he neglected to consider that, if people really didn’t want Tony Blair as their Prime Minister, they’d get up out of their armchairs en masse one gloomy Thursday and vote the man out.  Alternatively, if Labour MPs deigned to raise themselves from their comfy green benches, they could effect much the same change.

Thus far, they haven’t, which seems to indicate that, although they may well not be too thrilled about the man, they still see Tony Blair as the best option available.

The article did contain one interesting statistic, though:

Between Lord Liverpool’s resignation in 1827 and Mrs Thatcher’s election in 1979, no prime minister apart from Asquith held uninterrupted office for more than six years. Now Thatcher with her 11-and-a-half years has been followed by Major with his six-and-a-half and Blair with his nine-and-a-quarter not out. 

Thatcher, Major and Blair are clearly the three greatest Prime Ministers of the past 180 years.  Either that, or they’ve been fortunate enough to face the most incompetent opposition parties for a couple of centuries.