Doesn’t sound terribly exciting, does it? But the recently reported 20% birth rate increase could be the difference between life and death for the Russian state.
From 8.7 births per 1,000 people in 2000, it has gone to 10.4 in 2004, state statistics show.
Such figures compare favourably with other countries, notes leading Russian obstetrician Vladimir Serov: Germany recorded a rate of 8.3 births per thousand last year, while for Japan it was 9.5 and, in the UK, 10.8.
Since the tail end of the Soviet Union, the Russian population has plummeted at a rate of 5% (or around 750,000 people) per year, leading to predictions from the UN that, by 2050, Russia could have lost a staggering one in three of its population.
Russia still has to address some pretty fundamental problems – alcoholism and AIDS to name but two at the beginning of the alphabet – which contribute to a high death rate and an alarmingly low life expectancy for men.
But I wonder if this news could mark a turning point in Russia’s fortunes?
The relevant figure that I’m familiar with is 2.1 TFR. If you’re below 2.1 total children born per women, your population shrinks. If you are above it, your population grows. The UK’s TFR is somewhat lower than 2. If Russia’s birth rate is lower still than the UK’s, Russia is getting less worse, not getting better in terms of its future population. This is nothing to be sneered at. It gives more room for maneuver to reverse the slide. It does not mean that the crisis is over.
Hmmm, not exactly good news when you forgot to include the death rate as well. Russia’s death rate is far higher than Germany’s or the UK’s. Furthermore, the comparison with Germany and Japan is amusing since those two countries are rushing towards depopulation at a rapid clip as well. How about a comparison with neighbouring Iran to give some perspective:
Russia BR 10.4. Death rate 14.65 (CIA world factbook). Difference -4.2.
Iran BR 17. Death rate 5.55. Difference +11.45.
Russia growth rate: -0.37. Iranian growth rate +1.1 (a big difference though it may seem small).
That’s the difference. Only a Russian could call that good news.
Absolutely, although if you want to compare the US (probably the first world economy with the best birth-death ratio) with Iran, the US also seems to take a pretty hefty beating.
I don’t think the point of the post above was to say all is rosy, merely that there is a potential end in sight to Russia’s demographic decline.
Die Russians die; the fewer Russians in the world, the better.